What's next in the national redistricting fight after California approved a new US House map

The caller legislature representation that California voters approved marked a triumph for Democrats successful the nationalist redistricting conflict playing retired up of the 2026 midterm election. But Republicans are inactive up successful the fight.

The antithetic mid-decade redistricting fray began this summertime erstwhile President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to reshape their voting districts to effort to assistance the GOP clasp power of the House successful adjacent year's election. Democrats request to summation conscionable 3 seats to triumph the enclosure and impede Trump's agenda.

Texas responded first with a caller U.S. House representation aimed astatine helping Republicans triumph up to 5 further seats. Proposition 50, which California voters supported Tuesday, creates up to 5 further seats that Democrats could win.

If the 2026 predetermination goes according to the redistricting projections, Democrats successful California and Republicans successful Texas could cancel each other’s gains.

But Republicans could inactive beryllium up by 4 seats successful the redistricting battle. New districts adopted successful Missouri and North Carolina could assistance Republicans triumph 1 further spot successful each state. And a caller U.S. House representation approved past week successful Ohio boosts Republicans’ chances to triumph 2 further seats.

Some large uncertainties remain. Several Ohio districts are truthful competitory that Democrats judge they, too, person a accidental astatine winning them. Lawsuits persist successful Missouri and North Carolina. And Missouri’s redistricting instrumentality faces a referendum petition that, if successful, would suspend the caller representation until it's enactment to a statewide vote.

Republican ineligible challenges are apt to proceed against California's caller districts, which enforce boundaries drawn by the Democratic-led Legislature successful spot of those adopted aft the 2020 census by an autarkic citizens commission.

But candidates can't spend to hold to ramp up campaigns successful the caller districts.

Though Democrats could triumph up to 48 of California's 52 U.S. House seats, respective districts are intimately divided betwixt Democratic and Republican voters.

“Some of the Democratic districts are astir apt going to ballot blue, but I wouldn’t telephone them locks,” said J. Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "You could inactive person immoderate costly races,” Coleman added.

Republicans who power the Legislature chose not to convene a special league connected redistricting Monday, aft Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun had called for it. But efforts to circular up capable votes continue. Lawmakers present are readying to see redistricting during a uncommon December regular session.

Republicans presently clasp 7 of Indiana’s 9 U.S. House seats and could effort to summation 1 oregon 2 much done redistricting.

Kansas Republican lawmakers had been collecting signatures from colleagues to telephone themselves into a peculiar league to effort to gully an further Republican-leaning legislature district. But immoderate lawmakers remained reluctant, and House Speaker Dan Hawkins ended the effort Tuesday.

Redistricting could inactive travel up during Kansas' regular legislative league that begins Jan. 12.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said helium hopes support of California's redistricting “sends a chilling effect connected Republicans who are trying to bash this astir the country.” But “if the Republicans proceed to bash this, we volition respond successful benignant each and each measurement of the way," Martin said.

On Tuesday, Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore announced a committee connected legislature redistricting, adjacent though the Democratic Senate president has said his enclosure won’t determination guardant with redistricting due to the fact that of concerns the effort to summation different Democratic spot could backfire.

National Democrats besides privation Illinois lawmakers to redistrict to summation an further House seat. But lawmakers frankincense acold person resisted, citing concerns astir the effect connected practice for Black residents.

Virginia's Democratic-led legislature precocious endorsed a projected law amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting. But it needs different circular of legislative support aboriginal adjacent twelvemonth earlier going to voters. Democrats presently clasp six of Virginia's 11 U.S. House seats and could effort to summation 2 oregon 3 much by redistricting, though nary circumstantial program has been released.

Over the past 90 years, erstwhile the president's enactment has held a House majority, that enactment has mislaid an mean of much than 30 seats successful midterm elections. No magnitude of Republican redistricting this twelvemonth could offset a nonaccomplishment of that size. But the 2026 predetermination whitethorn not beryllium average.

Those past swings were truthful ample partially due to the fact that the president's enactment often held ample House majorities, which meant much competitory seats were astatine risk.

The Republicans' existent slim bulk is astir akin to GOP margins during the 2002 midterm predetermination nether President George W. Bush and Democrats' margins during the 2022 midterm nether President Joe Biden. Republicans gained 8 seats successful 2002, erstwhile Bush was wide fashionable aft the 2001 violent attacks. Democrats mislaid 9 seats successful 2022, erstwhile Biden's support standing was good nether 50%, as Trump's is today.

If adjacent year's plaything is likewise small, a summation of conscionable half-dozen to a twelve seats done redistricting could marque a quality successful which enactment wins the House.

"Because we person this tiny numerical sliver separating a Democratic bulk from a Republican majority, the stakes are incredibly precocious — adjacent successful a azygous authorities considering whether to redraw its districts,” said David Hopkins, a governmental subject prof astatine Boston College.

The conflict to redraw legislature voting districts for partisan vantage isn't apt to extremity with the 2026 election.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, which supports GOP candidates successful authorities legislative races, warned successful a caller memo that “the redistricting arms contention has escalated to an each rhythm fight" — nary longer centered astir each decennial census.

Democratic lawmakers successful New York are pursuing a projected law amendment that could let redistricting up of the 2028 election. Several states presently nether divided partisan power besides could prosecute legislature redistricting earlier 2028 if adjacent year's predetermination shifts the equilibrium of powerfulness truthful 1 enactment controls some the legislature and governor's office.

“It’s important to admit that the combat for 2027 redistricting — and the U.S. House successful 2028 — has already started,” RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón wrote.

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Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri. Associated Press writers John Hanna successful Topeka, Kansas; Marc Levy successful Lancaster, Pennsylvania; and Brian Witte successful Annapolis, Maryland, contributed.