Voters in Virginia and New Jersey send a message: It's Trump's economy now

FREDERICKSBURG, Va. -- Virginia Democrat Nicole Cole and her squad spent overmuch of their 2025 run for the authorities legislature lasting successful places similar Weis Markets successful Spotsylvania County, railing against prices that she said were excessively high: astatine slightest $3.79 for a twelve eggs, up to $7.99 for a lb of crushed beef, $9.39 for java beans.

Her effort paid disconnected erstwhile she ousted a 36-year Republican from his authorities House seat. She was 1 of 13 Virginia Democrats to flip competitory House seats and lend to large predetermination wins successful her authorities and New Jersey, the lone ones with governor's races this year.

“We would greet them astatine the constituent of purchase,” Cole said. “That’s erstwhile it hurts most.”

The outgo of surviving besides whitethorn person led voters to awesome that this is President Donald Trump’s system now. Some prices person stabilized oregon adjacent declined, and costs thin to beryllium higher successful New Jersey than Virginia. But economical concerns, which helped Trump instrumentality to powerfulness successful 2024, appeared to measurement Republicans down successful the 2 contests for politician successful the archetypal large predetermination aft they took power of the White House and Congress, according to the AP Voter Poll.

Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, who won those races successful Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, campaigned hard connected economical issues and led a expanse for their enactment successful some states.

The swings were particularly melodramatic successful suburban and exurban areas similar Spotsylvania and Morris County, New Jersey. Morris County is portion of a traditionally Republican authorities legislative territory wherever wide Democrat Marisa Sweeney and 1 of 2 incumbent Republicans are truthful adjacent successful the ballot number that The Associated Press considers the race, which volition person 2 winners, excessively adjacent to call.

“You spell into the market store, you spot what things cost, and it’s conscionable not working,” Sweeney said.

Over the past decade, places similar Morris and Spotsylvania counties person go progressively competitory — communities conscionable beyond large metro areas wherever midterms are often won oregon lost. Morris County is astir 30 miles westbound of New York City; Spotsylvania County is conscionable southbound of Fredericksburg. Each is astir two-thirds white, somewhat wealthier than the nationalist average, and astatine oregon supra it successful the stock of residents with bachelor’s degrees.

Heading into 2025, some looked similar they would beryllium close. Cole’s territory includes portion of the Republican-leaning county, which Trump carried successful 2020 and 2024, and GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin won it by much than 20 percent points successful between.

Still, Cole remained persuaded that she could flip her district, which includes portion of Spotsylvania and Caroline counties.

“Early connected successful my campaign, erstwhile I brought successful my staff, 1 of the main messages I talked to them astir was that we request to halt saying this territory is red, and that it leans red,” Cole said, adding: “We had to springiness immoderate encouragement that this is imaginable to the radical who aren’t red.”

Cole, who was elected to the Spotsylvania County School Board successful 2021, developed a playbook focused connected the outgo of surviving and education. Two weeks earlier the Nov. 4 election, she spoke astatine a municipality hallway successful Fredericksburg astir tackling precocious vigor bills from electrical utilities.

“You cognize you person to person vigor and air, and a inferior measure that has to get paid,” she said. “So past thing other is simply a sacrifice. The prime of nutrient that you’re capable to bargain for your kids is simply a sacrifice.”

As she greeted voters successful November aft the election, astir radical were bushed of talking politics. But 1 voter, Kaitlyn Sapp, seemed funny successful learning what Democrats would bash for her.

“I did not ballot this year,” Sapp said. “I person not been precise political. But recently, I person been trying to larn more.”

Cole smiled, not wasting a 2nd earlier rattling disconnected the issues her enactment aimed to tackle adjacent year: wellness attraction costs, nationalist education, inferior bills and truthful on.

Morris County besides swung dramatically to Democrats.

It was 1 of conscionable 4 New Jersey counties to backmost some Democrat Joe Biden successful the 2020 statesmanlike contention and Republican Jack Ciattarelli successful the governor's contention the adjacent year. Biden won Morris County by 4 percent points, and Ciattarelli carried it by much than 11 percent points. That 15.5 percent constituent plaything was the sixth-largest among the state’s 21 counties. By 2024, Trump narrowly flipped Morris County, winning it by conscionable nether 3 percent points.

This clip around, Sherrill edged Ciattarelli there.

Sherrill's triumph is not each that surprising, and she is nary alien to the county. The governor-elect represented it portion serving successful Congress, and had a way grounds of moving with authorities Republicans successful the county.

“She has a batch of crossover entreaty with Republican voters,” said Darcy Draeger, chairwoman of the Morris County Democrats.

Voters seemed to wage attraction to however the president's policies were affecting them, said Sweeney, whose territory includes portion of the county.

“People are watching the quality and they’re looking to spot what goes connected successful Trump’s administration, and they are seeing however it affects radical locally, and with the full authorities shutdown and radical losing their SNAP benefits,” Sweeney said. “We’re talking astir radical wrong our ain communities.”

It’s an outlook shared by immoderate conservatives. The all-encompassing effect of Trump’s 2nd medication and his clash with legislature Democrats outgo the enactment successful New Jersey, Republicans said.

“We request to marque definite that our constituents recognize that we are present to service and that we’re listening to their voices,” said Republican authorities Sen. Anthony Bucco of Morris County. “I deliberation the connection was drowned retired a small spot by Washington.”

Passaic, a bluish New Jersey region not acold from New York, is different country that shows a displacement backmost to Democrats. The county, which has heavy Latino areas, went for Trump successful 2024, the archetypal clip it went for a Republican successful decades. This year, it swung backmost to Democrats by treble digits.

John Currie, the longtime Democratic president successful Passaic, chalked up the plaything backmost to his enactment determination to “hard work” by those running, on with a connection astir lowering costs. And by not talking astir costs enough, Currie said Republicans paid the eventual price.

“Affordability – it’s that simple.”