Takeaways from the 2025 general election, in charts

WASHINGTON -- After voters swung toward Republican Donald Trump during past fall’s statesmanlike election, states similar Virginia and New Jersey swung backmost towards Democratic candidates astatine astir the aforesaid velocity arsenic 2024’s shift, an Associated Press investigation of predetermination information from this week found.

From populous suburbs to large cities to military-heavy counties, this year’s electorate moved decisively towards the Democratic Party. Some of these areas had the largest shifts towards Trump past year, peculiarly successful New York and New Jersey, but connected Tuesday, the returns much intimately resembled 2020 margins.

This came alongside comparatively precocious turnout, astatine slightest compared to caller off-year elections, suggesting that 1 signifier of the past decennary successful American authorities — Republicans doing good erstwhile Trump is connected the ballot, and Democrats doing amended erstwhile helium is not — continues to hold.

The AP’s investigation is based disconnected county- and precinct-level data. In each cases, 2025 margins are arsenic of 10:45 a.m. connected Nov. 7. Additional votes volition beryllium counted arsenic predetermination officials tabulate late-arriving message and provisional ballots. Here are immoderate of the findings.

Virginia and New Jersey, the 2 states that elite governors successful the twelvemonth pursuing a statesmanlike election, some person a contented of moving against the enactment successful the White House.

Starting successful 1976, each clip a enactment has won backmost power of the presidency, Virginia voters person chosen a politician from the opposing enactment the pursuing year. And successful New Jersey, voters elected a politician from the other enactment of the sitting president successful each predetermination from 1989 to 2017.

Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill continued this inclination with double-digit victories.

Spanberger’s triumph was particularly notable for its scale. In the past 12 Virginia gubernatorial elections, the mean borderline of triumph was 8.6 percent points.

Spanberger’s 14.4-point triumph — coming a twelvemonth aft Democratic statesmanlike nominee Kamala Harris won the authorities by conscionable 5.8 percent points — was bolstered by large margins successful Northern Virginia, location to Washington, D.C., suburbs heavy affected by national authorities cuts and the ongoing authorities shutdown. It besides greatly exceeded erstwhile President Joe Biden’s 10.1-point triumph successful 2020.

These shifts helped Spanberger triumph 15 counties and autarkic cities that her predecessor, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, had won 4 years earlier. Six of those jurisdictions — Spotsylvania, Lynchburg, Nelson, Waynesboro, Prince Edward and Surry — besides supported Trump successful 2024.

Spanberger besides benefited from a spending vantage of astir $27 cardinal and Trump’s reluctance to endorse her Republican opponent.

In succeeding term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, Sherrill not lone restarted New Jersey’s past of voting for the enactment not successful powerfulness but besides broke a 60-year streak. No enactment has held the New Jersey governorship for much than 3 consecutive presumption since the 1960s, erstwhile a two-term Democratic politician succeeded different two-term Democratic governor.

Recent voting patterns successful New Jersey suggested the governor’s contention could person been overmuch tighter. And successful summation to receiving Trump’s endorsement, Republican Jack Ciattarelli kept gait with Sherrill successful presumption of spending.

He besides got adjacent the predetermination prior. Ciattarelli came wrong 3 points of ousting Murphy successful 2021. And betwixt Ciattarelli’s 2021 and 2025 campaigns, Trump made monolithic inroads successful New Jersey: He flipped 5 counties that Biden won successful 2020 and chopped the Republican borderline successful the authorities down to just 5.9 percent points.

Sherrill’s 13.5-point triumph indicated a instrumentality to pre-2024 levels. While she fell abbreviated of Biden’s 15.9-point win, she returned each 5 of the counties Trump flipped to the Democratic column. She besides improved connected Harris’ borderline successful Bergen County, the state’s largest, by much than 8 points.

Some of Tuesday’s elections were notable outliers successful presumption of the fig of radical they brought to the polls, portion others were much successful enactment with past races.

In New York City, authorities assemblymember Zohran Mamdani juiced turnout successful his palmy superior run and built connected that successful the wide election. More than 2 cardinal New Yorkers voted for politician this year, a level of elector enthusiasm the metropolis hasn’t seen successful a mayoral predetermination since 1969, erstwhile John Lindsay won a 2nd term.

The politician races were much of a mixed bag. New Jersey had the highest turnout complaint successful a politician predetermination since 2009, erstwhile Republican Chris Christie bushed incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine. As of Friday morning, this year’s turnout was conscionable nether 50%.

Virginia’s turnout complaint was conscionable shy of 2021 levels arsenic of Friday morning. It is not yet wide if turnout successful 2025 volition conscionable oregon transcend 2021 arsenic ballots proceed to beryllium counted.

Before the wide election, Mamdani drew skepticism from governmental pundits for perceived weakness with immoderate voters of colour successful New York City. While helium did good successful June’s superior among neighborhoods with ample Asian and Muslim populations, helium mostly fell abbreviated of erstwhile Gov. Andrew Cuomo successful predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods.

The wide predetermination was a antithetic story. Whether it was due to the fact that of outreach, the payment of moving connected the Democratic ballot line, oregon his mega-viral run videos, Mamdani won astir each azygous bulk Black and bulk Hispanic neighborhood.

In general, Mamdani did good successful areas and among demographics that moved toward Trump implicit the past 2 statesmanlike elections.

Forty-seven New York City neighborhoods shifted astatine slightest 25 points towards Trump successful 2024. Mamdani won 37 of them.

And a twelvemonth aft Trump eroded Democrats’ vantage among young voters nationally, Mamdani won astir three-quarters of voters nether the property of 30, according to the AP Voter Poll.

There was lone 1 contention connected the ballot successful California, but it had large implications for power of the U.S. House successful adjacent year’s midterm elections. In passing Proposition 50, which temporarily substitutes a Democratic-drawn legislature representation for the representation created by an autarkic redistricting commission, California voters could flip arsenic galore arsenic 5 Republican-held U.S. House seats adjacent year.

California became the archetypal authorities to follow a caller representation that would adhd Democratic seats. Four different states — Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio — person besides enacted caller maps since Trump began encouraging states to redistrict implicit the summer. Those 4 states each changed their territory lines to make winnable Republican seats.

Two groups that person been peculiarly affected by the ongoing authorities shutdown are subject families and national workers. Many successful these groups person been furloughed oregon are moving without wage arsenic the shutdown stretches into a sixth week.

Democrats sought to capitalize connected this successful some gubernatorial campaigns.

In Virginia, location to 1 of the largest concentrations of national workers arsenic good arsenic large subject bases, national workers successful peculiar supported Spanberger.

Households with a existent oregon erstwhile subordinate of the subject were evenly divided betwixt the 2 candidates successful Virginia and favored Ciattarelli successful New Jersey.