FACT FOCUS: Trump says Thanksgiving dinner will cost 25% less this year. His numbers are misleading

With Thanksgiving little than 3 weeks away, the question of however overmuch this year’s turkey and trimmings volition outgo looms large, particularly with market prices 2.7% higher than they were successful 2024.

President Donald Trump has claimed implicit the past 2 days that costs for the Thanksgiving repast are down 25% this year, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving repast handbasket from Walmart.

“I conscionable saw that Walmart came retired with a connection past night, they've done it for galore years, that Thanksgiving this twelvemonth volition outgo 25% little than Thanksgiving past year,” helium said during a quality conference connected Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

But Trump’s numbers are off. Here's a person look astatine the facts.

CLAIM: Walmart prices amusement that the outgo of Thanksgiving meal is 25% little successful 2025 than successful 2024.

THE FACTS: This is misleading. While Walmart's 2025 repast handbasket costs astir 25% little than the 1 from 2024, that's due to the fact that it offers less items and antithetic products that marque it much affordable.

“It's not apples to apples, right?” said David Anderson, a livestock economist astatine Texas A&M University. “What this does item is idiosyncratic retailers’ strategies for getting customers successful the door.”

The 2025 handbasket costs little than $40 and feeds 10 people, astir $4 a head, according to Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight outgo astir $56, little than $7 per person. That's astir a 25% decrease, perchance much depending connected terms fluctuations. John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., touted the savings successful a LinkedIn post past month.

But the baskets disagree significantly. For example, this year's includes conscionable 15 items compared to past year's 29. It is missing galore dessert items, including a pecan pie, mini marshmallows and muffin mix, arsenic good arsenic savory items specified arsenic saccharine potatoes, yellowish onions and celery stalks.

The superstore retailer has besides substituted immoderate products. Instead of 12 saccharine Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 woody includes 12 meal rolls. Both are from Walmart's store brand. It besides offers Kinder's crispy fried onions arsenic opposed to French's.

Plus, the magnitude of each point varies. Customers were promised a 10-16 lb turkey successful 2024, but a 13.5 lb 1 this year. And they'll get 1 tin of pick of mushroom crockery alternatively of two.

“They're selling it that ‘hey, this is simply a much affordable way,’ yet that implies that 'man, stuff's a batch much expensive,'” Anderson said. “I conjecture it's bully marketing.”

A Thursday press release from the White House besides cited cheaper Thanksgiving deals astatine Lidl's, Aldi's, Target and Schnucks.

Target's four-person repast costs little than $20, astir the aforesaid arsenic successful 2024, but substitutes greenish beans and pick of mushroom crockery for French breadstuff and frozen maize — besides not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Schnucks provided The Associated Press with a press release saying the retailer is offering consumers its lowest terms connected a frozen store-brand turkey successful implicit 15 years. It declined further comment. Lidl US said it is offering its Thanksgiving repast astatine the lowest ever terms and Aldi said its terms was little than 2024. Target and Walmart did not comment.

According to a recent study from Wells Fargo, the outgo of a 10-person Thanksgiving repast has fallen 2% to 3% since 2024, depending successful portion connected whether customers spell for nationalist sanction brands oregon cheaper store labels. The White House property merchandise besides cited this report.

Some economists person concerns astir the terms of turkey. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture reported astatine the extremity of October that wholesale prices are up 75% since October 2024, portion retail prices are 25% higher than a twelvemonth ago.

An earlier analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation recovered that wholesale turkey prices were up astir 40%.

And yet, that doesn’t mean each vertebrate volition beryllium pricier successful 2025. Anderson explained that due to the fact that definite retailers, specified arsenic Walmart, declaration their turkeys good successful advance, the terms for customers mightiness beryllium overmuch little than the marketplace presently indicates.

“That gives them the flexibility to tally those types of specials,” helium said.

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Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.